49ers vs Bears — Week 8, 2021
The 49ers took over leading 30-22 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 33, Bears 22. 49ers won 33-22 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 37, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 94.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) 25-E.Mitchell left end to CHI 24 for 39 yards (96-A.Hicks; 38-Ta.Gipson).
- (3:30) 25-E.Mitchell left guard to CHI 25 for -1 yards (58-R.Smith).
- (3:27) 25-E.Mitchell right end to CHI 13 for 12 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
- (3:18) 25-E.Mitchell right guard to CHI 15 for -2 yards (96-A.Hicks, 58-R.Smith).
- (3:14) 25-E.Mitchell left end to CHI 15 for no gain (36-D.Houston-Carson).
- (2:28) 23-J.Hasty right end to CHI 14 for 1 yard (38-Ta.Gipson).
- (2:00) 14-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.88 pts |
| Curl route | -3.24 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -8.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.