Vikings vs Lions — Week 5, 2021
The Vikings took over leading 16-9 with 2:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 19, Lions 17. Vikings won 19-17 — the drive turnover.
Vikings ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 18, 2:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 94.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:27) 25-A.Mattison left tackle to MIN 20 for 2 yards (55-D.Barnes). DET-39-J.Jacobs was injured during the play.
- (2:23) 30-C.Ham left guard to MIN 21 for 1 yard (97-N.Williams, 27-B.Price).
- (2:00) 25-A.Mattison left end to MIN 21 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 24-A.Oruwariye). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at MIN 20.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.82 pts |
| Curl route | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -5.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.22 pts |
| Deep post | -8.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.