Vikings vs Panthers — Week 6, 2021
The Vikings took over leading 28-20 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 28, Panthers 28. Tied 28-28 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 92.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to CAR 35 for 40 yards (21-J.Chinn).
- (3:51) 33-D.Cook right tackle to CAR 36 for -1 yards (49-F.Luvu, 95-D.Brown).
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 52-M.Cole reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to CAR 33 for 3 yards (24-A.Bouye).
- (3:05) 33-D.Cook right end to CAR 36 for -3 yards (53-B.Burns).
- (2:18) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CAR 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-85-D.Chisena.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.80 pts |
| Curl route | -3.12 pts |
| End-around | -5.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.17 pts |
| Deep post | -8.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.