Dolphins vs Giants — Week 13, 2021
The Dolphins took over leading 17-9 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 20, Giants 9. Dolphins won 20-9 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 92.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to MIA 29 for 4 yards (95-Q.Roche).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 2-A.Wilson.
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 11-D.Parker ran ob at MIA 45 for 16 yards.
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin right guard to MIA 49 for 4 yards (55-R.Ragland).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to NYG 49 for 2 yards (95-Q.Roche, 23-L.Ryan).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to NYG 32 for 17 yards (23-L.Ryan).
- (3:14) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to NYG 29 for 3 yards (23-L.Ryan; 98-A.Johnson).
- (2:30) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to NYG 27 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left guard to NYG 25 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams).
- (1:16) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.19 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.79 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.15 pts |
| Deep post | -8.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.