Jets vs Dolphins — Week 15, 2021
The Jets took over trailing 31-24 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Jets 24, Dolphins 31. Dolphins won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 11.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) 23-T.Coleman right guard to NYJ 27 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts; 94-C.Wilkins).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles up the middle to NYJ 28 for 1 yard (55-J.Baker; 94-C.Wilkins).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 32-M.Carter.
- (2:14) 7-B.Mann punts 63 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-T.Lewis to MIA 14 for 5 yards (41-J.Pinnock).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.86 pts |
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| End-around | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.