Vikings vs Browns — Week 4, 2021
The Vikings took over trailing 14-7 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 7, Browns 14. Browns won 14-7 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 12, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.6% for Vikings. Our model starts at 11.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 25 for 13 yards (26-G.Williams).
- (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Cook right guard to MIN 27 for 2 yards (58-M.McDowell; 97-M.Jackson).
- (2:50) 33-D.Cook right guard to MIN 29 for 2 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson ran ob at CLE 40 for 31 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (2:09) 25-A.Mattison up the middle to CLE 38 for 2 yards (23-T.Hill; 97-M.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to CLE 33 for 5 yards (26-G.Williams).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen (97-M.Jackson). CLE-90-J.Clowney was injured during the play.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [97-M.Jackson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.13 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.13 pts |
| Curl route | -0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.52 pts |
| Play action | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.65 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.19 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.