Browns vs Ravens — Week 12, 2021
The Browns took over trailing 16-10 with 1:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 10, Ravens 16. Ravens won 16-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 7.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left [50-J.Houston].
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Landry.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Hooper (54-T.Bowser).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 32 for 7 yards (54-T.Bowser).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| End-around | -0.85 pts |
| Spike it | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.