Commanders vs Broncos — Week 8, 2021
The Commanders took over trailing 17-10 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 10, Broncos 17. Broncos won 17-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Commanders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.4% for Commanders. Our model starts at 13.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic ran ob at WAS 44 for 19 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 41-J.McKissic ran ob at WAS 49 for 5 yards (21-R.Darby).
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (99-S.Stephen).
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 15-D.Milne to DEN 29 for 22 yards (21-R.Darby).
- (3:30) 41-J.McKissic left end pushed ob at DEN 25 for 4 yards (41-K.Young).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep right to 15-D.Milne (27-N.Hairston).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter to DEN 11 for 14 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 24-A.Gibson to DEN 8 for 3 yards (56-B.Browning).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to DEN 7 for 1 yard (31-J.Simmons).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at DEN 19 for -12 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], recovered by WAS-72-C.Leno at DEN 20.
- (:49) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 11-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -2. 31-J.Simmons ran ob at DEN 22 for 24 yards (41-J.McKissic). Penalty on WAS-41-J.McKissic, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Taunting, offsetting.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Deep post | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| End-around | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.