Texans vs Jets — Week 12, 2021
The Texans took over trailing 21-14 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Texans 14, Jets 21. Jets won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 31, 3:26 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.0% for Texans. Our model starts at 11.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-D.Amendola pushed ob at HOU 38 for 7 yards (52-J.Davis).
- (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 28-R.Burkhead to HOU 40 for 2 yards (52-J.Davis).
- (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-R.Burkhead up the middle to HOU 39 for -1 yards (33-E.Riley, 94-F.Fatukasi).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins (37-B.Hall).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.49 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| End-around | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.