Vikings vs Ravens — Week 9, 2021
The Vikings took over trailing 31-24 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 31, Ravens 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 10.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin to MIN 31 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).
- (2:56) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 32 for 1 yard (56-J.Bynes, 93-C.Campbell).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 30-C.Ham to BAL 41 for 27 yards (32-D.Elliott). BAL-32-D.Elliott was injured during the play. BAL-92-J.Madubuike was injured during the play.
- (2:22) 33-D.Cook right tackle to BAL 17 for 24 yards (36-C.Clark; 44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Thielen (21-B.Stephens).
- (1:55) 33-D.Cook left tackle to BAL 16 for 1 yard (50-J.Houston).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Conklin (44-M.Humphrey).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at BAL 4 for 12 yards (25-T.Young) [50-J.Houston].
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to BAL 1 for 3 yards (71-J.Ellis).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.00 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.