Colts vs Patriots — Week 15, 2021
The Colts took over leading 20-17 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Colts 27, Patriots 17. Colts won 27-17 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 31, 2:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 82.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) 16-A.Dulin right end to IND 33 for 2 yards (32-D.McCourty, 53-K.Van Noy).
- (2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.36 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Curl route | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -1.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.89 pts |
| End-around | -3.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.59 pts |
| Deep post | -6.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.