Chiefs vs Packers — Week 9, 2021
The Chiefs took over leading 13-7 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 13, Packers 7. Chiefs won 13-7 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 86.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 31-Da.Williams right guard to KC 19 for -1 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 41 for 22 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams up the middle to KC 43 for 2 yards (93-T.Slaton). GB-95-T.Lancaster was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to GB 48 for 9 yards (20-K.King).
- (2:37) 31-Da.Williams left tackle to GB 45 for 3 yards (90-J.Heflin; 93-T.Slaton).
- (2:33) 31-Da.Williams up the middle to GB 43 for 2 yards (93-T.Slaton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to GB 35 for 13 yards (31-A.Amos) [52-R.Gary].
- (1:10) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to GB 36 for -1 yards.
- (:33) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to GB 37 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.34 pts |
| Curl route | -2.50 pts |
| End-around | -4.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.57 pts |
| Deep post | -7.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.