49ers vs Eagles — Week 2, 2021
The 49ers took over leading 17-11 with 3:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Eagles 11. 49ers won 17-11 — the drive time expired.
49ers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 14, 3:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:58) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to SF 15 for 1 yard (91-F.Cox).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to SF 23 for 8 yards (49-A.Singleton). SF-44-K.Juszczyk was injured during the play.
- (2:30) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SF 26 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to SF 25 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to SF 24 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to SF 23 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.87 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| QB keep | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -2.92 pts |
| End-around | -4.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.86 pts |
| Deep post | -8.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.