Rams vs Lions — Week 7, 2021
The Rams took over leading 25-19 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Rams 28, Lions 19. Rams won 28-19 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 23, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.2% for Rams. Our model starts at 86.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to LA 26 for 3 yards (90-T.Flowers; 99-J.Okwara). DET-34-A.Anzalone was injured during the play.
- (4:19) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 32 for 6 yards (21-T.Walker; 90-T.Flowers).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 2-R.Woods to 50 for 18 yards (39-J.Jacobs).
- (2:54) 27-D.Henderson right tackle to DET 42 for 8 yards (55-D.Barnes; 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (2:10) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to DET 38 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (2:00) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to DET 34 for 4 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 33-D.Worley).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson to DET 29 for 5 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson right guard to DET 29 for no gain (34-A.Anzalone, 91-M.Brockers).
- (1:03) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.48 pts |
| End-around | -4.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.54 pts |
| Deep post | -7.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.