Chiefs vs Ravens — Week 2, 2021
The Chiefs took over trailing 36-35 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 35, Ravens 36. Ravens won 36-35 — the drive turnover.
Chiefs ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 48.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-B.Pringle to KC 48 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 39 for 13 yards (49-C.Board).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 32 for 7 yards (54-T.Bowser).
- (1:26) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to BAL 34 for -2 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 34.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.34 pts |
| Curl route | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.46 pts |
| Deep post | -1.63 pts |
| End-around | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.