Falcons vs Dolphins — Week 7, 2021
The Falcons took over trailing 28-27 with 2:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28. Falcons won 30-28 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 47.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:27) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 48 for 23 yards (52-E.Roberts).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at MIA 24 for 28 yards (25-X.Howard).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis left tackle to MIA 21 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
- (1:50) 84-C.Patterson left guard to MIA 16 for 5 yards (52-E.Roberts; 21-E.Rowe).
- (1:45) 84-C.Patterson right tackle to MIA 13 for 3 yards (29-Br.Jones; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (1:40) 84-C.Patterson left guard to MIA 11 for 2 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (:58) 2-M.Ryan kneels to MIA 12 for -1 yards.
- (:29) 2-M.Ryan kneels to MIA 13 for -1 yards.
- (:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.61 pts |
| Curl route | +1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep post | -1.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -2.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.89 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.