Ravens vs Lions — Week 3, 2021
The Ravens took over trailing 17-16 with 1:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Lions 17. Ravens won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:04 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.2% for Ravens. Our model starts at 43.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 22 for -3 yards (53-C.Harris).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 13-D.Duvernay (27-B.Price).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked ob at BAL 16 for -6 yards (95-R.Okwara).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 48 for 36 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (:07) (No Huddle) 8-L.Jackson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left. ball thrown away
- (:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.33 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.33 pts |
| Quick slant | +2.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.99 pts |
| QB keep | +1.81 pts |
| Play action | +1.20 pts |
| Quick out | +1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.49 pts |
| Deep post | +0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| End-around | -2.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.