Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 15, 2021
The Chiefs took over trailing 28-21 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
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What really happened
Final: Chiefs 28, Chargers 28. Tied 28-28 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 8.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 30 for 5 yards (44-K.White).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to KC 40 for 10 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at LAC 40 for 20 yards (36-T.Marshall).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 39 for 1 yard (93-J.Jones).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 7 for 32 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-K.White].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| End-around | -0.91 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| Spike it | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.