Packers vs Ravens — Week 15, 2021
The Packers took over leading 31-24 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Packers 31, Ravens 30. Packers won 31-30 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 18, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 88.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 18 for no gain (92-J.Madubuike).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to GB 23 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen; 26-G.Stone).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -9 yards (92-J.Madubuike).
- (2:30) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to GB 49, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.84 pts |
| End-around | -4.83 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.86 pts |
| Deep post | -8.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.