49ers vs Bengals — Week 14, 2021
The 49ers took over leading 20-13 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Bengals 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 15, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 89.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 22-J.Wilson right guard pushed ob at SF 23 for 8 yards (20-E.Apple).
- (4:31) 22-J.Wilson right guard to SF 29 for 6 yards (22-C.Awuzie; 57-G.Pratt).
- (3:46) 22-J.Wilson right guard to SF 31 for 2 yards (49-J.Bachie; 94-S.Hubbard).
- (3:04) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 29 for -2 yards (98-D.Reader).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to SF 37 for 8 yards (33-T.Flowers).
- (2:47) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-T.Boyd.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -1.31 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.36 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.07 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.03 pts |
| Deep post | -8.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.