Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 14, 2021
The Cowboys took over leading 27-20 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 27, Commanders 20. Cowboys won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 13, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to DAL 16 for 3 yards (92-D.Wise).
- (4:02) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 20 for 4 yards (23-W.Jackson).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup (29-K.Fuller).
- (3:16) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.00 pts |
| Quick out | -1.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.59 pts |
| QB keep | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -2.93 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.15 pts |
| Deep post | -8.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.89 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.