Patriots vs Bills — Week 13, 2021
The Patriots took over leading 14-10 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 14, Bills 10. Patriots won 14-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 19, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 85.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) One-yard difference on change of possession. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 21 for 2 yards (99-H.Phillips).
- (1:50) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 23 for 2 yards (51-E.Ankou). BUF-53-T.Dodson was injured during the play.
- (:44) 10-M.Jones kneels to NE 19 for -4 yards.
- (:01) 10-M.Jones kneels to NE 10 for -4 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.80 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| QB keep | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| Curl route | -1.86 pts |
| End-around | -4.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.02 pts |
| Deep post | -7.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.