Rams vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2021
The Rams took over leading 23-17 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 26, Seahawks 17. Rams won 26-17 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Rams. Our model starts at 91.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) 27-D.Henderson right tackle to LA 34 for 12 yards (6-Q.Diggs).
- (2:33) 27-D.Henderson left end to LA 34 for no gain (94-R.Green).
- (2:28) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to LA 36 for 2 yards (90-B.Mone; 10-B.Mayowa).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (8-C.Dunlap).
- (2:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -2.46 pts |
| Curl route | -2.71 pts |
| End-around | -4.81 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.83 pts |
| Deep post | -8.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.