Panthers vs Jets — Week 1, 2021
The Panthers took over leading 19-14 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at the Jets 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 19, Jets 14. Panthers won 19-14 — the drive time expired.
Panthers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to NYJ 45 for no gain (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:51) 22-C.McCaffrey left end to NYJ 27 for 18 yards (33-A.Colbert).
- (1:37) 14-S.Darnold kneels to NYJ 29 for -2 yards.
- (:54) 14-S.Darnold kneels to NYJ 31 for -2 yards.
- (:29) 14-S.Darnold kneels to NYJ 33 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.76 pts |
| Curl route | -3.09 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.19 pts |
| Deep post | -8.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.