Bears vs Bengals — Week 2, 2021
The Bears took over leading 20-17 with 3:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bears 20, Bengals 17. Bears won 20-17 — the drive time expired.
Bears ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.0% for Bears. Our model starts at 77.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to CHI 26 for 1 yard (91-T.Hendrickson; 65-L.Ogunjobi).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 26 for no gain (30-J.Bates).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 36 for 10 yards (96-C.Sample).
- (2:05) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 42 for 6 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (2:00) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 46 for 4 yards (65-L.Ogunjobi; 55-L.Wilson).
- (1:54) 1-J.Fields kneels to CHI 45 for -1 yards.
- (1:13) 1-J.Fields kneels to CHI 43 for -2 yards.
- (:29) 1-J.Fields kneels to CHI 42 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| QB keep | -0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| Curl route | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Play action | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.70 pts |
| End-around | -3.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.34 pts |
| Deep post | -6.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.