Seahawks vs Saints — Week 7, 2021
The Seahawks took over trailing 13-10 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 10, Saints 13. Saints won 13-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 27.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 17 for -8 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 7 for -10 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Metcalf (56-D.Davis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.36 pts |
| Deep post | +1.09 pts |
| Play action | +1.04 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.16 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.