Commanders vs Raiders — Week 13, 2021
The Commanders took over trailing 15-14 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 17, Raiders 15. Commanders won 17-15 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 48.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 87-J.Bates to WAS 34 for 9 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle to WAS 38 for 4 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue; 5-D.Deablo).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 13-A.Humphries to WAS 48 for 10 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 13-A.Humphries ran ob at LV 40 for 12 yards (29-C.Hayward).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Humphries (25-T.Moehrig).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 24-A.Gibson to LV 34 for 6 yards (92-S.Thomas, 5-D.Deablo).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 10-C.Samuel up the middle to LV 31 for 3 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue; 34-K.Wright).
- (:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.61 pts |
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.13 pts |
| Deep post | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.