Lions vs Steelers — Week 10, 2021
The Lions took over tied at 16 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 16, Steelers 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 13, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.4% for Lions. Our model starts at 53.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) 69-W.Holden reported in as eligible. 32-D.Swift left end pushed ob at DET 9 for -4 yards (56-A.Highsmith). Penalty on DET-88-T.Hockenson, Illegal Crackback, declined.
- (4:21) 32-D.Swift right tackle to DET 11 for 2 yards (92-I.Loudermilk).
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 2 for -9 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (3:29) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to DET 48, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Curl route | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Outside run | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.37 pts |
| Deep post | -3.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.