Vikings vs Cardinals — Week 2, 2021
The Vikings took over trailing 34-33 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 33, Cardinals 34. Cardinals won 34-33 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 48.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 28 for 13 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (3:39) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 29 for 1 yard (33-A.Hamilton).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 31-A.Abdullah (58-J.Hicks).
- (2:52) 3-J.Berry punts 32 yards to ARI 39, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.96 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.70 pts |
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.88 pts |
| Deep post | -2.20 pts |
| End-around | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.