Buccaneers vs Patriots — Week 4, 2021
The Buccaneers took over trailing 17-16 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17. Buccaneers won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.2% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 46.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) 7-L.Fournette left guard to NE 41 for 3 yards (9-M.Judon; 23-K.Dugger).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans to NE 40 for 11 yards (55-J.Uche). NE-31-J.Jones was injured during the play. TB 12-Brady 93,001 career pass yds (including postseason), extends NFL record (Brees 85,724).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown to NE 32 for 8 yards (29-J.Bethel).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left tackle to NE 30 for 2 yards (21-A.Phillips).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 81-A.Brown.
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 81-A.Brown.
- (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.83 pts |
| Deep post | -2.12 pts |
| End-around | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.