49ers vs Seahawks — Week 13, 2021
The 49ers took over trailing 30-23 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 23, Seahawks 30. Seahawks won 30-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
49ers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.2% for 49ers. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at SF 31 for 29 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 25-E.Mitchell to SF 42 for 11 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at 50 for 18 yards.
- (3:00) (No Huddle) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to SEA 44 for 6 yards (56-J.Brooks, 54-B.Wagner).
- (2:15) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SEA 30 for 14 yards (54-B.Wagner) [91-L.Collier].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SEA 20 for 10 yards (23-S.Jones). PENALTY on SF-81-T.Sherfield, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SEA 23 for 7 yards (6-Q.Diggs).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to SEA 7 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to SEA 4 for 3 yards (94-R.Green).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to SEA 3 for 1 yard (23-S.Jones, 26-R.Neal).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 81-T.Sherfield (23-S.Jones).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Sherfield (8-C.Dunlap).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.64 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-2.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| Deep post | -1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Curl route | -1.16 pts |
| Play action | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.43 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.81 pts |
| End-around | -1.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.