Ravens vs Steelers — Week 13, 2021
The Ravens took over trailing 20-13 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Steelers 20. Steelers won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 40, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 9.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 33-D.Freeman to BAL 45 for 5 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 36 for -4 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], ball out of bounds at BAL 36. Penalty on BAL-78-A.Villanueva, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to PIT 42 for 22 yards (35-A.Maulet; 39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 13-D.Duvernay to PIT 24 for 18 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to PIT 11 for 13 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at PIT 6 for 5 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.14 pts |
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.