Raiders vs Giants — Week 9, 2021
The Raiders took over trailing 23-16 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 16, Giants 23. Giants won 23-16 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:21 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 9.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to LV 28 for 3 yards (20-J.Love).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to LV 47 for 19 yards (23-L.Ryan).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 23-K.Drake to NYG 44 for 9 yards (48-T.Crowder; 23-L.Ryan).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Drake up the middle to NYG 41 for 3 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 23-K.Drake to NYG 24 for 17 yards (20-J.Love).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to NYG 16 for 8 yards (48-T.Crowder).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Drake (51-A.Ojulari).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at NYG 13 for 3 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 7-Z.Jones.
- (:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NYG 20 for -7 yards (95-Q.Roche). FUMBLES (95-Q.Roche) [95-Q.Roche], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 23. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, declined. Officially, a sack for -10 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| End-around | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
| Spike it | -1.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.