Colts vs Titans — Week 8, 2021
The Colts took over trailing 31-24 with 1:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 31, Titans 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 5.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 34 for 9 yards (35-C.Jackson).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 16-A.Dulin.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 43 for 38 yards (37-A.Hooker; 39-B.Borders).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox.
- (:25) Direct snap to 21-N.Hines. 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Curl route | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.42 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Spike it | -0.70 pts |
| End-around | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.