Raiders vs Ravens — Week 1, 2021
The Raiders took over tied at 27 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at the Ravens 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 27, Ravens 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. In Ravens territory, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 70.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 23-K.Drake left tackle to BAL 26 for 1 yard (90-P.McPhee).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Inside run | -0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -2.44 pts |
| Field goal | -2.86 pts |
| End-around | -3.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.67 pts |
| Deep post | -5.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.