Vikings vs Packers — Week 11, 2021
The Vikings took over tied at 31 with 2:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 34, Packers 31. Vikings won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.4% for Vikings. Our model starts at 56.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:08) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB 37. 26-D.Savage to GB 37 for no gain (18-J.Jefferson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson (26-D.Savage).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 36 for 6 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook to GB 45 for 19 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 19 for 26 yards (26-D.Savage).
- (1:26) 33-D.Cook right end to GB 7 for 12 yards (26-D.Savage).
- (1:19) 8-K.Cousins kneels to GB 9 for -2 yards.
- (:38) 8-K.Cousins kneels to GB 11 for -2 yards.
- (:02) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.56 pts |
| QB keep | +1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.75 pts |
| Deep post | -2.22 pts |
| End-around | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.