Buccaneers vs Colts — Week 12, 2021
The Buccaneers took over tied at 31 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 38, Colts 31. Buccaneers won 38-31 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.8% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 55.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to TB 28 for 3 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 36 for 8 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left tackle to TB 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Sendejo, 30-G.Odum).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate pushed ob at TB 48 for 6 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette to IND 39 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard).
- (1:12) 7-L.Fournette right guard to IND 31 for 8 yards (53-D.Leonard).
- (1:07) 14-C.Godwin right end to IND 28 for 3 yards (51-K.Paye).
- (:29) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.12 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Deep post | -2.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.