Dolphins vs Jaguars — Week 6, 2021
The Dolphins took over tied at 20 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 23. Jaguars won 23-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 53.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at MIA 33 for 8 yards (21-N.Lawson).
- (3:34) 26-S.Ahmed left guard to MIA 34 for 1 yard (54-D.Wilson, 41-J.Allen).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown left guard to MIA 37 for 3 yards (6-J.Ward; 49-C.Russell).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 26-S.Ahmed up the middle to MIA 41 for 4 yards (41-J.Allen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 26-S.Ahmed.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 46 for 5 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.05 pts |
| End-around | -2.46 pts |
| Deep post | -2.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.