Cowboys vs Chargers — Week 2, 2021
The Cowboys took over tied at 17 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Chargers 17. Cowboys won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 13, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 52.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott right end to DAL 12 for -1 yards (9-K.Murray).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin to DAL 19 for 7 yards (9-K.Murray, 99-J.Tillery).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott pushed ob at DAL 26 for 7 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (2:30) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to DAL 31 for 5 yards (9-K.Murray; 97-J.Bosa).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 35 for 4 yards (98-L.Joseph).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 38 for 3 yards (95-C.Covington).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to DAL 43 for 5 yards (44-K.White).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper to LAC 45 for 12 yards (32-A.Gilman). DAL-19-A.Cooper was injured during the play.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson pushed ob at LAC 41 for 4 yards (33-D.James).
- (:33) 20-T.Pollard right end to LAC 38 for 3 yards (97-J.Bosa, 33-D.James).
- (:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Curl route | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -1.55 pts |
| Outside run | -1.59 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.15 pts |
| Deep post | -3.43 pts |
| End-around | -3.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.