Bears vs Steelers — Week 9, 2021
The Bears took over trailing 26-20 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 27, Steelers 29. Steelers won 29-27 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.3% for Bears. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 12-A.Robinson to CHI 34 for 9 yards (35-A.Maulet). PIT-97-C.Heyward was injured during the play.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Mooney.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left end pushed ob at CHI 37 for 3 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Robinson (55-D.Bush).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to CHI 45 for 8 yards (55-D.Bush).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 39 yards (35-A.Maulet).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.10 pts |
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| End-around | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.