Titans vs Seahawks — Week 2, 2021
The Titans took over trailing 30-23 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Titans 30, Seahawks 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 32, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.3% for Titans. Our model starts at 14.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 2-J.Jones to TEN 32 for 10 yards (2-D.Reed; 56-J.Brooks).
- (3:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to TEN 46 for 14 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (3:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 22-D.Henry to 50 for 4 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 28-J.McNichols to SEA 41 for 9 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.McNichols right guard to SEA 38 for 3 yards (51-K.Hyder).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 28-J.McNichols to SEA 26 for 12 yards (56-J.Brooks, 54-B.Wagner).
- (1:54) 22-D.Henry left guard to SEA 18 for 8 yards (56-J.Brooks; 6-Q.Diggs).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to SEA 14 for 4 yards (91-L.Collier; 92-R.Nkemdiche).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 22-D.Henry to SEA 10 for 4 yards (33-J.Adams).
- (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 28-J.McNichols to SEA 5 for 5 yards (33-J.Adams).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to SEA 1 for 4 yards (51-K.Hyder; 56-J.Brooks).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.93 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.