Jaguars vs Colts — Week 10, 2021
The Jaguars took over trailing 23-17 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 17, Colts 23. Colts won 23-17 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.1% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 11.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Shenault [99-D.Buckner].
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 34 for 9 yards (41-J.Addae).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson left tackle to JAX 36 for 2 yards (95-T.Stallworth).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 25-J.Robinson to JAX 45 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 25-J.Robinson to IND 46 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Deep post | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.