Jaguars vs Falcons — Week 12, 2021
The Jaguars took over trailing 21-14 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
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What really happened
Final: Jaguars 14, Falcons 21. Falcons won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 18, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.9% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 6.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to JAX 21 for 3 yards (51-B.Copeland).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 25-J.Robinson.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to JAX 29 for 8 yards (22-F.Moreau) [51-B.Copeland].
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy.
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 24-C.Hyde.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle to 18-L.Treadwell (34-D.Hall).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 10-L.Shenault.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.64 pts |
| Curl route | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Spike it | -0.79 pts |
| End-around | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.