Raiders vs Steelers — Week 2, 2021
The Raiders took over leading 23-17 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 26, Steelers 17. Raiders won 26-17 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 27, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.3% for Raiders. Our model starts at 89.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) 31-P.Barber left tackle to LV 30 for 3 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (2:55) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-D.Waller to PIT 45 for 25 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (2:10) 31-P.Barber right guard to PIT 32 for 13 yards (42-J.Pierre).
- (2:00) 31-P.Barber left guard to PIT 31 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).
- (1:56) 31-P.Barber right guard to PIT 28 for 3 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (1:11) 31-P.Barber right tackle to PIT 27 for 1 yard (8-M.Ingram; 93-J.Schobert).
- (:24) 2-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| QB keep | -0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.41 pts |
| Curl route | -2.63 pts |
| End-around | -4.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.91 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.74 pts |
| Deep post | -8.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.