Browns vs Steelers — Week 8, 2021
The Browns took over trailing 15-10 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 10, Steelers 15. Steelers won 15-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 39, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.5% for Browns. Our model starts at 26.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to PIT 49 for 12 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (3:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to PIT 48 for 1 yard (23-J.Haden, 34-Te.Edmunds).
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry pushed ob at PIT 39 for 9 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (3:03) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Landry.
- (2:52) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 81-A.Hooper.
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to PIT 25 for -1 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to PIT 26 for 4 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep post | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.56 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.