Colts vs Rams — Week 2, 2021
The Colts took over trailing 27-24 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Rams 27. Rams won 27-24 — the drive turnover.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:23 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 27.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Eason pass incomplete short left to 14-Z.Pascal.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Eason pass deep right intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [54-L.Floyd] at IND 45. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at IND 45 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.93 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.17 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.