Buccaneers vs Saints — Week 8, 2021
The Buccaneers took over trailing 29-27 with 1:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 27, Saints 36. Saints won 36-27 — the drive turnover.
Buccaneers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 35.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.78 pts |
| QB keep | +1.61 pts |
| Play action | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.77 pts |
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.59 pts |
| End-around | -1.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.89 pts |
| Spike it | -2.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.