Cardinals vs Packers — Week 8, 2021
The Cardinals took over trailing 24-21 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 21, Packers 24. Packers won 24-21 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 1, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 29.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (95-T.Lancaster).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Kirk.
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-A.Green to ARI 24 for 23 yards (41-H.Black).
- (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to GB 47 for 29 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-R.Moore to GB 38 for 9 yards (21-E.Stokes; 39-C.Sullivan).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-C.Kirk ran ob at GB 32 for 6 yards.
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 37, and recovers at GB 40.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-C.Edmonds to GB 18 for 22 yards (41-H.Black). GB-41-H.Black was injured during the play.
- (:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end ran ob at GB 9 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right tackle to GB 8 for 1 yard (26-D.Savage).
- (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds right tackle to GB 5 for 3 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.14 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-4.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.42 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.99 pts |
| Outside run | -2.16 pts |
| Inside run | -2.19 pts |
| Curl route | -2.34 pts |
| Play action | -2.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.50 pts |
| Deep post | -2.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.