Cowboys vs Buccaneers — Week 1, 2021
The Cowboys took over trailing 28-26 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 29, Buccaneers 31. Buccaneers won 31-29 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 10, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.2% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 38.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end to DAL 11 for 1 yard (90-J.Pierre-Paul; 54-L.David).
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 14 for 3 yards (54-L.David).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 25 for 6 yards (54-L.David; 35-J.Dean).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 36 for 11 yards (35-J.Dean; 31-A.Winfield).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Cooper.
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-C.Wilson to DAL 35 for 9 yards (43-R.Cockrell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at TB 34 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
- (1:48) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to TB 30 for 4 yards (96-S.McLendon).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper to TB 30 for 10 yards (32-M.Edwards).
- (1:29) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.25 pts |
| Curl route | -1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.52 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.72 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.92 pts |
| Play action | -1.93 pts |
| Inside run | -2.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.61 pts |
| Deep post | -2.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -3.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.