Packers vs Buccaneers — Week 20, 2020
The Packers took over trailing 31-23 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
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What really happened
Final: Packers 26, Buccaneers 31. Buccaneers won 31-26 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Packers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 34, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 12.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right tackle to GB 43 for 9 yards (45-D.White).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to TB 28 for 29 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting, 26-A.Adams).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to TB 19 for 9 yards (45-D.White).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at TB 8 for 11 yards (24-C.Davis).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Lazard.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams [93-N.Suh].
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (26-A.Adams).
- (2:09) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| End-around | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.